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No more rate hikes: Markets believe the Fed rate pause is nigh

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Quick Take

  • Chances of any more rate hikes seem to have disappeared after the recently reported weak U.S. macro data.
  • A pause is now the firm favorite for the next two meetings, with roughly 75bps rate cuts throughout the year.
  • The market believes the US rates will end the year at 4-4.25%.
  • Australia’s Central Bank joined Canada in “pausing” interest rates.
  • Liquidity is drying up; banks are reluctant to lend while the economy slows down. These could be the biggest headwinds that Bitcoin would face.
Meeting Probabilities: (Source CME)
Meeting Probabilities: (Source CME)
Australia and Canada Bank rates: (Source: Trading View)
Australia and Canada Bank rates: (Source: Trading View)

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